Weather forecasting more than a few days ahead is difficult. The reason is obvious, we do not yet understand all of the complex factors involved in the weather.
I was watching the waves on the surface of some water and I realized something about the atmosphere that I have never seen documented. It revealed another factor in the formation of the weather.
The surface of a body of water is flat because it is held by gravity and a flat surface is the one requiring the least amount of energy to maintain. Gravity is stronger that the structural bonds within the water. There is also another factor, the air above the water is also held by gravity and presses down evenly on the water.
However, the situation changes when there is a breeze. I have determined that from the point of view of the water, the air pressure from above and the wind forms a vector. If there is no wind, the only component of the vector is the air pressure from above and the vector is a vertical line of 90 degrees, since the water and air are both held by the same gravity. The angle of the air vector pressing upon the surface of the water is determined by the speed of the wind. It is the angle of the air pressure vector that determines the formation of waves on the water.
A 90 degree air vector, which means no wind at all, will form no waves. An air pressure vector from almost straight up, a light breeze, will form small waves. The air pressure vector must be at an angle other than 90 degrees to produce waves and the lower the angle, the higher will be the waves. This is because the lower the vector angle, the less the wind force is opposed by the pressure from above and gravity.
Thus, in my description of wave formation here, faster wind produces higher waves not because of increased force but because of a lower air pressure vector angle. It is well-known that when the wind is at a speed of 22 kilometers per hour (13.785 miles per hour) or greater, whitecaps will form on waves. Boaters know this as a sign that the water is too rough to be out in a small boat.
I recognize this whitecap threshold as a sign that the pressure from the wind to the side is now equal to the air pressure from above. I have never seen this documented anywhere. Put simply, whitecaps form on waves when wind reaches a speed where it's pressure exceeds the air pressure caused by the weight of the air above so that the wind can force air into the water. Whitecaps form when our air pressure vector goes below 45 degrees, when the horizontal wind pressure exceeds the vertical air pressure.
We don't notice air pressure because it cancels out as it presses in all around us. But this is not true for water thrown into the air. When water turns white, it means that the air pressure on it is unequal and air is forced in at the higher pressure side. Air is not forced into the water in a lake because the pressure on it is equal.
The air in the water changes the way it refracts light, causing it to appear white. I notice at Niagara Falls that the water turns white as soon as it passes the brink of the falls. This is because the water is now falling, making the air pressure below it greater than the pressure above it and forcing air in from below.
Water usually gets into the air by the process of evaporation. Temperature is defined as the speed of movement of the atoms or molecules in a substance. Water at a certain temperature will actually have molecules moving at different speeds, the temperature of the water is the average of these speeds. Some of the faster-moving molecules will escape the water altogether into the air. Thus, evaporation causes the average speed of the molecules to drop and the temperature to decrease.
I have a new idea to add to the movement of water into the air. If the wind can push air into water, it can also push water into the air. When the wind is above the whitecap threshold and the air pressure vector is thus below 45 degrees, the wind can push water into the air without going through the usual evaporation process. Let's call wind above the whitecap threshold of 22 kph "super-pressure wind" because it can bypass the evaporation process and actually push water into the air, which can later fall as precipitation.
To verify that my hypothesis must be correct, let's consider evaporation. Few would doubt that water will evaporate faster from warm water than from cold water. This should logically mean that there would be far fewer storms in winter than there are in summer. Yet, that is not the case at all. There are many and powerful storms in winter when logic would seem to dictate that there should be much less water in the air.
How does all the water to form Buffalo's lake-effect snow evaporate from a cold lake? The answer is that it usually doesn't. But there are powerful winds in winter and my hypothesis here is that by means of the air pressure vector, winds above the whitecap threshold can push water into the air from a cold body of water (unless, of course, it is frozen) without going through the normal evaporation process.
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